The reason is simple: Venezuela no longer carries much weight in the global economy. The country, which accounted for 1% of global GDP and 8% of oil production in the 1970s, now represents only 0.1% of global GDP and produces barely 1 million barrels per day (or 1% of global supply). Ranked as the world’s 18th-largest producer, Venezuela is therefore far from being considered a strategic linchpin in the global energy and economic balance.
Moreover, the Chávez and Maduro years turned Venezuela’s decline into an outright collapse: hyperinflation, a 70% contraction in real GDP, and a massive exodus of the population. In this context, even an extreme scenario of prolonged political chaos in the country would have little effect on global growth or on oil market supply.
The oil market itself, which saw prices fall by 18% in USD (28% in EUR) last year due to excess supply, continues to show a downward trend. The price of Brent crude, the North Sea benchmark, is currently hovering around USD 60–61 per barrel, compared with nearly USD 82 in mid‑January 2025.
In the short term, the expected economic impact is therefore negligible, and equity markets appear to share this view, as the MSCI World Index seems to be extending the impressive rally seen last year (+28% in EUR since April 8). However, in the long run, the potential could be considerable: 30 million Venezuelans, abundant natural resources, and a diaspora ready to invest. The country could once again become attractive to international capital, but this will take time. And the issue of oil sovereignty will remain central: Venezuelans will not easily relinquish their wealth to foreign companies.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Geopolitical consequences"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Donald Trump raised the idea of “managing” Venezuela with ground troops, but this option was quickly dismissed by Washington. The objective is instead to control oil exports in order to maintain influence without further military engagement. The main risk lies in prolonged instability and in a possible expansion of U.S. interventionism in Latin America, with Colombia, Mexico, and Cuba perceived by Donald Trump as other weak links in the region.
This U.S. interventionism confirms a major trend: the end of the Pax Americana and the emergence of a new world order in which major powers cultivate their spheres of influence while avoiding mutual interference. This configuration suits the United States, China, and Russia, even though the latter would have preferred to preserve their interests in Venezuela. We are witnessing a near‑Orwellian division of the world into three blocs: Oceania, Eurasia, and East Asia.
"}},{"componentType":"sectionTitle","title":"Asset allocation remains unchanged"},{"componentType":"paragraph","richBody":{"value":"Even though, in this new geopolitical environment where each country appears intent on defending its own turf, equities will likely struggle to replicate in 2026 the strong performance achieved in 2025, their prices should nevertheless remain well supported. Beyond encouraging earnings growth prospects, equities are benefiting from an economy that no longer appears to be threatened by recession. They also continue to gain support from accommodative monetary policies implemented by numerous central banks.
In December, the Federal Reserve once again cut its key policy rate from 4% to 3.75%, its lowest level since October 2022, and announced the end of its quantitative tightening program, as well as its intention to purchase USD 40 billion in Treasury securities per month. Finally, easing trade tensions and the announcement of more expansionary fiscal policies in several countries, particularly Germany and the United States, are also providing support for equities.
For all these reasons, ING’s investment strategy continues to favor equities and corporate bonds, with a preference for emerging markets and sectors benefiting from the rise of artificial intelligence (technology, communication services, financials, and healthcare). Likewise, precious metals such as gold, which typically benefit from geopolitical tensions, also have a place in a well‑diversified portfolio.
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